Nielsen, Jannie Sønderkær1; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard1
1 Department of Civil Engineering, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University, VBN2 Division of Water and Soil, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University, VBN3 Structural Dynamics, Reliability and Risk Analysis, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University, VBN4 Reliability and Risk Analysis Research Group, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University, VBN5 The Faculty of Engineering and Science (ENG), Aalborg University, VBN
In order to make wind energy more competitive, the big expenses for operation and maintenance must be reduced. Consistent decisions that minimize the expected costs can be made based on risk-based methods. Such methods have been implemented for maintenance planning for oil and gas structures, but for offshore wind turbines, the conditions are different and the methods need to be adjusted accordingly. This paper gives an overview of various approaches to solve the decision problem: methods with decision rules based on observed variables, a method with decision rules based on the probability of failure, a method based on limited memory influence diagrams and a method based on the partially observable Markov decision process. The methods with decision rules based on observed variables are easy to use, but can only take the most recent observation into account, when a decision is made. The other methods can take more information into account, and especially, the method based on the Markov decision process is very flexible and accurate. A case study shows that the Markov decision process and decision rules based on the probability of failure are equally good and give lower costs compared to decision rules based on observed variables.