Murray, Christopher J L2; Ortblad, Katrina F3; Guinovart, Caterina4; Lim, Stephen S5; Wolock, Timothy M6; Roberts, D Allen7; Dansereau, Emily A8; Graetz, Nicholas9; Barber, Ryan M10; Brown, Jonathan C11; Wang, Haidong12; Duber, Herbert C13; Naghavi, Mohsen14; Dicker, Daniel15; Dandona, Lalit16; Salomon, Joshua A17; Heuton, Kyle R18; Foreman, Kyle19; Phillips, David E20; Fleming, Thomas D21; Flaxman, Abraham D22; Phillips, Bryan K23; Johnson, Elizabeth K24; Coggeshall, Megan S25; Abd-Allah, Foad26; Abera, Semaw Ferede27; Abraham, Jerry P28; Abubakar, Ibrahim29; Abu-Raddad, Laith J30; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me31; Achoki, Tom32; Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi33; Adou, Arsène Kouablan34; Adsuar, José C35; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet36; Akena, Dickens37; Al Kahbouri, Mazin J38; Alasfoor, Deena39; Albittar, Mohammed I40; Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel41; Alegretti, Miguel Angel42; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw43; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael44; Alhabib, Samia45; Ali, Raghib46; Alla, Francois47; Allen, Peter J48; Alsharif, Ubai49; Alvarez, Elena50; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson51; Amankwaa, Adansi A52; Amare, Azmeraw T53; Amini, Hassan54; Ammar, Walid55; Anderson, Benjamin O44; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T56; Anwari, Palwasha57; Arnlöv, Johan58; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic59; Artaman, Ali60; Asghar, Rana J61; Assadi, Reza62; Atkins, Lydia S63; Badawi, Alaa64; Balakrishnan, Kalpana65; Banerjee, Amitava66; Basu, Sanjay67; Beardsley, Justin68; Bekele, Tolesa69; Bell, Michelle L70; Bernabe, Eduardo71; Beyene, Tariku Jibat72; Bhala, Neeraj73; Bhalla, Ashish74; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A75; Abdulhak, Aref Bin76; Binagwaho, Agnes77; Blore, Jed D78; Basara, Berrak Bora79; Bose, Dipan80; Brainin, Michael81; Breitborde, Nicholas82; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A83; Catalá-López, Ferrán84; Chadha, Vineet K85; Chang, Jung-Chen86; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia87; Chuang, Ting-Wu88; Colomar, Mercedes89; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull90; Cooper, Cyrus91; Courville, Karen J92; Cowie, Benjamin C93; Criqui, Michael H94; Dandona, Rakhi95; Dayama, Anand96; De Leo, Diego97; Degenhardt, Louisa98; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja99; Deribe, Kebede72; Des Jarlais, Don C100; Dessalegn, Muluken101; Dharmaratne, Samath D102; Dilmen, Uğur103; Ding, Eric L104; Driscoll, Tim R105; Durrani, Adnan M106; Ellenbogen, Richard G44; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich107; Esteghamati, Alireza108; Faraon, Emerito Jose A56; Farzadfar, Farshad109; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad110; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare111; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H112; Fra Paleo, Urbano113; Gaffikin, Lynne67; Gamkrelidze, Amiran114; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho115; Geleijnse, Johanna M116; Gessner, Bradford D117; Gibney, Katherine B118; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed119; Glaser, Elizabeth L120; Gona, Philimon121; Goto, Atsushi122; Gouda, Hebe N123; Gugnani, Harish Chander124; Gupta, Rajeev125; Gupta, Rahul126; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima127; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi128; Hammami, Mouhanad129; Hankey, Graeme J130; Harb, Hilda L131; Haro, Josep Maria132; Havmoeller, Rasmus133; Hay, Simon I46; Hedayati, Mohammad T134; Pi, Ileana B Heredia135; Hoek, Hans W136; Hornberger, John C137; Hosgood, H Dean138; Hotez, Peter J139; Hoy, Damian G140; Huang, John J70; Iburg, Kim M141; Idrisov, Bulat T142; Innos, Kaire143; Jacobsen, Kathryn H144; Jeemon, Panniyammakal145; Jensen, Paul N44; Jha, Vivekanand146; Jiang, Guohong147; Jonas, Jost B148; Juel, Knud338; Kan, Haidong150; Kankindi, Ida151; Karam, Nadim E152; Karch, André153; Karema, Corine Kakizi154; Kaul, Anil155; Kawakami, Norito156; Kazi, Dhruv S94; Kemp, Andrew H157; Kengne, Andre Pascal158; Keren, Andre159; Kereselidze, Maia160; Khader, Yousef Saleh161; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan162; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed163; Khang, Young-Ho164; Khonelidze, Irma165; Kinfu, Yohannes166; Kinge, Jonas M167; Knibbs, Luke123; Kokubo, Yoshihiro168; Kosen, S169; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate170; Kulkarni, Veena S171; Kulkarni, Chanda172; Kumar, Kaushalendra173; Kumar, Ravi B174; Kumar, G Anil175; Kwan, Gene F176; Lai, Taavi177; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana78; Lam, Hilton178; Lan, Qing179; Lansingh, Van C180; Larson, Heidi J181; Larsson, Anders58; Lee, Jong-Tae182; Leigh, James183; Leinsalu, Mall184; Leung, Ricky185; Li, Yichong186; Li, Yongmei187; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira188; Lin, Hsien-Ho189; Lipshultz, Steven E190; Liu, Shiwei191; Liu, Yang96; Lloyd, Belinda K192; Lotufo, Paulo A157; Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro193; Maclachlan, Jennifer H194; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos195; Majdan, Marek196; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila197; Marcenes, Wagner198; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos199; Masci, Joseph R200; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq201; Mason-Jones, Amanda J202; Mayosi, Bongani M203; Mazorodze, Tasara T204; Mckay, Abigail Cecilia205; Meaney, Peter A206; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan207; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola135; Melaku, Yohannes Adama208; Memish, Ziad A209; Mendoza, Walter210; Miller, Ted R211; Mills, Edward J212; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin213; Mokdad, Ali H214; Mola, Glen Liddell215; Monasta, Lorenzo216; Montico, Marcella216; Moore, Ami R217; Mori, Rintaro218; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora219; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru220; Murthy, Kinnari S221; Naheed, Aliya222; Naidoo, Kovin S223; Naldi, Luigi224; Nangia, Vinay225; Narayan, K M Venkat96; Nash, Denis226; Nejjari, Chakib227; Nelson, Robert G228; Neupane, Sudan Prasad229; Newton, Charles R230; Ng, Marie231; Nisar, Muhammad Imran232; Nolte, Sandra49; Norheim, Ole F233; Nowaseb, Vincent234; Nyakarahuka, Luke235; Oh, In-Hwan236; Ohkubo, Takayoshi237; Olusanya, Bolajoko O238; Omer, Saad B96; Opio, John Nelson239; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere240; Pandian, Jeyaraj D241; Papachristou, Christina49; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina242; Patten, Scott B243; Paul, Vinod K244; Pavlin, Boris Igor245; Pearce, Neil246; Pereira, David M247; Pervaiz, Aslam248; Pesudovs, Konrad249; Petzold, Max250; Pourmalek, Farshad251; Qato, Dima252; Quezada, Amado D135; Quistberg, D Alex44; Rafay, Anwar253; Rahimi, Kazem46; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa254; Ur Rahman, Sajjad255; Raju, Murugesan76; Rana, Saleem M256; Razavi, Homie257; Reilly, Robert Quentin258; Remuzzi, Giuseppe259; Richardus, Jan Hendrik260; Ronfani, Luca216; Roy, Nobhojit261; Sabin, Nsanzimana262; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya263; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali264; Samonte, Genesis May J265; Sawhney, Monika266; Schneider, Ione J C267; Schwebel, David C268; Seedat, Soraya269; Sepanlou, Sadaf G270; Servan-Mori, Edson E135; Sheikhbahaei, Sara271; Shibuya, Kenji272; Shin, Hwashin Hyun273; Shiue, Ivy274; Shivakoti, Rupak275; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora276; Silberberg, Donald H277; Silva, Andrea P278; Simard, Edgar P279; Singh, Jasvinder A280; Skirbekk, Vegard281; Sliwa, Karen282; Soneji, Samir283; Soshnikov, Sergey S284; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T285; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi286; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos287; Swaminathan, Soumya288; Sykes, Bryan L94; Tabb, Karen M289; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio290; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah291; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman292; Thomson, Alan J293; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L294; Towbin, Jeffrey A295; Traebert, Jefferson296; Tran, Bach X297; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala298; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis299; Uchendu, Uche S300; Ukwaja, Kingsley N301; Uzun, Selen Begüm302; Vallely, Andrew J303; Vasankari, Tommi J304; Venketasubramanian, N305; Violante, Francesco S306; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich307; Vollset, Stein Emil308; Waller, Stephen309; Wallin, Mitchell T310; Wang, Linhong311; Wang, XiaoRong312; Wang, Yanping313; Weichenthal, Scott273; Weiderpass, Elisabete314; Weintraub, Robert G315; Westerman, Ronny316; White, Richard A317; Wilkinson, James D318; Williams, Thomas Neil19; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret319; Wong, John Q320; Xu, Gelin321; Yang, Yang C322; Yano, Yuichiro323; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri324; Yip, Paul325; Yonemoto, Naohiro326; Yoon, Seok-Jun327; Younis, Mustafa328; Yu, Chuanhua329; Jin, Kim Yun330; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa331; Zhao, Yong332; Zheng, Yingfeng333; Zhou, Maigeng334; Zhu, Jun335; Zou, Xiao Nong336; Lopez, Alan D78; Vos, Theo337
1 Research Programme on Health and Morbidity in Denmark, National Institute of Public Health, Det Sundhedsvidenskabelige Fakultet, SDU2 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.3 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.4 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.5 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.6 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.7 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.8 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.9 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.10 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.11 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.12 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.13 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.14 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.15 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.16 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.17 Harvard University18 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.19 Imperial College London20 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.21 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.22 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.23 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.24 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.25 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.26 Faculty of Medicine, Cairo-University, Cairo, Egypt.27 College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Ethiopia.28 University of Texas School of Medicine San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.29 University College London30 Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar.31 Institute of Community and Public Health-Birzeti University, Ramallah, West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory.32 Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.33 Evidence For Action (MamaYe), Freetown, Western Area, Sierra Leone.34 Association Ivoirienne Pour Le Bien Etre Familial, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.35 University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain.36 Institution of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.37 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.38 Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman.39 Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman.40 Independent, Damascus, Syria.41 Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Neurociencias (CISNEURO), Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.42 Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Social, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay.43 Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.44 University of Washington45 National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.46 University of Oxford47 University of Lorraine48 Ministry of Health, Belmopan, Cayo, Belize.49 Charité Universitätsmedizin50 Government, Madrid, Spain.51 Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.52 Albany State University, Albany, GA, USA.53 Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.54 Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran.55 Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon.56 College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines.57 UNFPA, Kabul, Afghanistan.58 Uppsala University59 Belgrade University60 Median Inc, Windsor, ON, Canada.61 South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan.62 Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.63 Ministry of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Castries, St. Lucia.64 Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.65 Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, India.66 University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.67 Stanford University68 Oxford University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.69 Madawalabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia.70 Yale University71 King's College London72 Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.73 Wellington Hospital, Wellington, New Zealand.74 Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India.75 Aga Khan University Medical Center, Nairobi, Kenya.76 University of Missouri77 Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda.78 University of Melbourne79 General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey.80 World Bank81 Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria.82 University of Arizona83 Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Colombia.84 Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain.85 National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India.86 National Taiwan University87 General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.88 Department of Parasitology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Center for International Tropical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.89 UNICEM, Montevideo, Uruguay.90 Mayo Clinic91 University of Southampton92 Hospital Dr. Gustavo N. Collado, Chitre, Herrera, Panama.93 Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia.94 University of California95 Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.96 Emory University97 Griffith University98 University of New South Wales99 University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.100 Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.101 Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.102 University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.103 Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey.104 Harvard School of Public Health105 Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.106 National Institutes of Health, Montgomery Village, MD, USA.107 The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.108 Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.109 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.110 Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Stockholm, Sweden.111 Heller Graduate School, Waltham, MA, USA.112 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.113 University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain.114 National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.115 Clinique Coopérative de Parakou, Parakou, Borgou, Benin.116 Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.117 Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France.118 Monash University119 College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia.120 Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Waltham, MA, USA.121 University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA.122 Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.123 University of Queensland124 Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles.125 Fortis Escorts Hospital, Jaipur, India.126 Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA.127 Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.128 Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain.129 Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA.130 University of Western Australia131 Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon.132 Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.133 Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.134 Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran.135 National Institute of Public Health of Mexico136 Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands.137 Cedar Associates, Menlo Park, CA, USA.138 Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.139 Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.140 School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia.141 Aarhus Universitet142 Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA.143 National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.144 George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.145 Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, India.146 Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India.147 Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China.148 Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany.149 Health Promotion and Prevention, National Institute of Public Health, Det Sundhedsvidenskabelige Fakultet, SDU150 Fudan University, Shanghai, China.151 Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda.152 University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon.153 Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hannover-Braunschweig site, Germany.154 Malaria & Other Parasitic Diseases Division, Kigali, Rwanda.155 Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA.156 School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan.157 University of Säo Paulo158 South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.159 Cardiology, Hadassah Ein Kerem University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel.160 National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.161 Jordan University of Science and Technology162 Supreme Council of Health, Doha, Qatar.163 Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan.164 Seoul National University College of Medicine165 National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.166 University of Canberra167 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.168 Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan.169 Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia.170 University of Montreal171 Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, AR, USA.172 Rajrajeshwari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India.173 International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.174 Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, Haryana, India.175 Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.176 Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.177 Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia.178 Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines.179 National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.180 IAPB and Vision 2020 LA, Weston, FL, USA.181 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK.182 Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.183 University of Sydney184 National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.185 University at Albany, The State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA.186 Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA.187 Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA.188 Unidade Local de Saude de Matosinhos, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal.189 Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.190 Wayne State University, Miami, FL, USA.191 National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.192 Eastern Health Clinical School, VIC, Australia; Turning Point, Eastern Health, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia.193 Northern Region Health Administration, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal.194 Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia.195 Centro Nacional para la Prevención y el Control del VIH/SIDA, Mexico City, Mexico.196 Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia.197 University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.198 Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK.199 University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center, Quezon City, Philippines.200 Elmhurst Hospital Center, Mount Sinai Services, Elmhurst, NY, USA.201 Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan.202 University of York203 University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.204 AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa.205 EmergentCorp, Belize City, Belize.206 Pereleman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.207 Janakpuri Superspecialty Hospital, New Delhi, India.208 Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.209 Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.210 UNFPA, Lima, Peru.211 Curtin University212 University of Ottowa213 University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq.214 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.215 University of Papua New Guinea, Port Moresby, NCD, Papua New Guinea.216 Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy.217 University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA.218 National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan.219 Egerton University, Egerton, Rift Valley, Kenya.220 Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.221 Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.222 International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.223 University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.224 Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy.225 Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India.226 School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.227 Faculty of Medicine, Fez, Morocco.228 National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA.229 University of Oslo230 Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.231 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.232 Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.233 University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.234 Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia.235 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.236 Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea.237 Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.238 Center for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria.239 Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Northern Uganda, Uganda.240 Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.241 Christian Medical College Ludhiana, Ludhiana, India.242 Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.243 University of Calgary244 AIIMS, New Delhi, India.245 Independent, Waigani, NCD, Papua New Guinea.246 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK.247 3B's Research Group-Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine and ICVS/3B's-PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal.248 Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.249 Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia.250 University of Göthenburg251 University of British Columbia252 College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA.253 Contech Intl., Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.254 Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.255 Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.256 Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.257 Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA.258 Private consultant, Cairns, QLD, Australia.259 IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy.260 Erasmus Medical Center261 BARC Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.262 Rwanda Bio-Medical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.263 Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.264 MS Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.265 National HIV/AIDS & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit, National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines.266 Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA.267 Federal University of Santa Catarina268 University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.269 Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.270 Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.271 Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.272 University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.273 Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.274 Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.275 Center for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.276 Reykjavik University277 University of Pennsylvania278 Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina.279 Surveillance and Health Services Research Program American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA.280 University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.281 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.282 Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.283 Dartmouth College, Lebanon, NH, USA.284 Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia.285 Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia.286 Centre Hospitalier Nord Deux-Sevres, Bressuire, France.287 KEELPNO (Centre for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to "Alexandra" General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece.288 National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.289 University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA.290 Ministry of Health-MINSANTE, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon.291 Memorial University, St John's, NL, Canada.292 Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.293 Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, BC, Canada.294 The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.295 Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA.296 University of Southern Santa Catarina, Palhoça, Santa Catarina, Brazil.297 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.298 Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.299 Department of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece.300 Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC, USA.301 Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakailiki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria.302 Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey.303 The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia.304 UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland.305 Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, Singapore.306 University of Bologna307 Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.308 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.309 Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.310 Georgetown University311 National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.312 Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China.313 National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China.314 Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Stockholm, Sweden.315 University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.316 University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany.317 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control and Department of Health Statistics, Division of Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway.318 University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.319 Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.320 Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines.321 Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China.322 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill323 Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan.324 General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey.325 The University of Hong Kong326 National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan.327 Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.328 Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA.329 Wuhan University330 TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.331 Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt.332 Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.333 Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.334 National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.335 National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China.336 Cancer Institute/Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.337 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.338 Health Promotion and Prevention, National Institute of Public Health, Det Sundhedsvidenskabelige Fakultet, SDU
a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Lancet, 2014, Vol 384, Issue 9947, p. 1005-70
Age Distribution; Epidemics; Female; HIV Infections; Humans; Incidence; Malaria; Male; Mortality; Organizational Objectives; Sex Distribution; Tuberculosis; World Health