1 National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark2 Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark3 Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark4 Statistics and Data Analysis, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark5 Videncentret for Landbrug
A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introduc-ing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester,respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitiga-tion measures and sources of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreementon the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Ter-restrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment.Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports of live cattle, aswell as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecuritymeasures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries,was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochas-tic scenario trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introductionroutes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimatedto one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3–59). However, if all importedanimals were tested and hoof trimmers always disinfected the tools used abroad, the riskcould be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8–200). Results of thisstudy can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danishdairy herds.
Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2014, Vol 116, Issue 1-2, p. 75-88
BVDV; Risk assessment; Scenario tree model; Stochastic simulations