This paper presents grey-box modeling of the heat dynamics of an apartment in a highly insulated test building located in the Arctic. Data from a 16-day-long experiment is analyzed and used to fit lumped parameter models formulated as coupled stochastic differential equations. The output of the models is the measured indoor air temperature, and the models are fitted using maximum likelihood techniques with the software CTSM-R. Models are compared using likelihood-ratio tests and validated considering autocorrelation and periodograms of residuals. The fitted models facilitate description of both the fast responses to mechanical ventilation and solar radiation through a large window facade, and the slow responses to floor heating and outdoor temperature. To successfully describe the dynamics of the system, solar radiation is given special attention in modeling of both the physical system and the observational noise. The estimated physical parameters which include UA-value, total heat capacity, and time constants for the apartment are discussed. Simulations are performed to illustrate step and impulse responses of inputs.
Building Simulation, 2014, Vol 7, Issue 6, p. 595-614
Grey-box models; Statistical modeling; Low-energy buildings; Arctic technology; Time series analysis