The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.
Journal of Viral Hepatitis, 2014, Vol 21, Issue Suppl 1, p. 60-89
Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Antiviral Agents; Diagnostic Tests, Routine; Disease Eradication; Drug Therapy, Combination; Female; Global Health; Hepatitis C, Chronic; Humans; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Prevalence; Young Adult