Harrison, Glenn W.2; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy1; Swarthout, J. Todd2
1 Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School2 Georgia State University
We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects with popular non-expected utility preference representations that satisfy weak conditions.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2014, Vol 101, p. 128-140
Subjective probability elicitation; Binary lottery procedure; Experimental economics; Risk neutrality