1 Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University2 Department of Economics and Business Economics - Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES), Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University3 Copenhagen Business School4 Clarkson University5 Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University
Signaling or Price Pressure?
Convertible bond calls typically cause significant reactions in equity prices. The empirical research largely finds negative and positive announcement effects for the in-the-money and the out-of-the-money calls respectively. However, this research has difficulty distinguishing between the two main theoretical explanations: the signaling effect and the price pressure effect. In this paper, we differentiate between these two effects by using a unique data set of the in- and the out-of-the-money calls in the United States during the period of 1993 to 2007. We find that the announcement effect for the in-the-money call is predominantly explained by the subsequent order imbalances; and the stock market's reaction is spread over an entire trading day, which is consistent with the price pressure effect. In contrast, the announcement effect for the out-of-the-money call is driven by the size of the called convertible bond; and the stock market's reaction is almost immediate, which is consistent with the signaling effect.
Journal of Corporate Finance, 2014, Vol 24, Issue 2, p. 135-148