The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model. The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.
Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2013, p. 13-22
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SVEPM Annual Meeting 2013
Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine