If the Nordic energy and transport sectors are to meet the 2050 energy and climate policy targets, major systemic changes are necessary. Along with new technologies, changes are required also in other societal functions such as business models and consumer habits. The transition requires cooperation between public and private actors. This paper discusses the paradigm change towards 2050 Nordic road transport system based on renewable energy. More precisely, it proposes an approach for creation and analysis of prospective value networks up to the year 2050. The value networks arise from three alternative, but partly overlapping technology platforms, namely electricity, biofuels and hydrogen. The approach outlined in the paper combines elements from the fields of system level changes (transitions), value chain analysis and forward looking policy design. It presents a novel, policy relevant application with a set of practical tools to support development of implementation strategies and policy programmes in the fields of energy and transport.
International Foresight Academic Seminar: Participatory Foresight for Smarter Futures – From Design To Impact, 2013