Kooths, Stefan2; Mitze, Timo Friedel4; Ringhut, Eric2
1 Institut for Grænseregionsforskning, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, SDU2 unknown3 Department of Business and Economics, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, SDU4 Department of Business and Economics, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, SDU
This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according to a battery of parametric and non-parametric test statistics to measure their performance in one- and four-step ahead forecasts of quarterly data. Using genetic-neural fuzzy systems we find the computational approach superior to some degree and show how to combine both techniques successfully.
Advances in Econometrics: Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Finance and Economics, 2004, p. 145-173