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# Failure Analysis of Wind Turbines by Probability Density Evolution Method

Authors:
• Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri ;
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Structural Dynamics, Reliability and Risk Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University
• Nielsen, Søren R.K. ;
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0000-0002-8540-6792
Department of Civil Engineering, The Faculty of Engineering and Science, Aalborg University
• Liu, W.F. ;
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State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University
• Chen, J.B. ;
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State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University
• Li, J. ;
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State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University
• Peng, Y.B.
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State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University
Editor:
DOI:
10.4028/www.scientific.net/KEM.569-570.579
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to present an efficient and accurate method for estimation of the failure probability of wind turbine structures which work under turbulent wind load. The classical method for this is to fit one of the extreme value probability distribution functions to the extracted maxima of the response of wind turbine. However this approach may contain high amount of uncertainty due to the arbitrariness of the data and the distributions chosen. Therefore less uncertain methods are meaningful in this direction. The most natural approach in this respect is Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. This is not practical due to its excessive computational load. This problem can alternatively be tackled if the evolution of the probability density function (PDF) of the response process can be realized. The evolutionary PDF can then be integrated on the boundaries of the problem. For this reason we propose to use the Probability Density Evolution Method (PDEM). PDEM can alternatively be used to obtain the distribution of the extreme values of the response process by simulation. This approach requires less computational effort than integrating the evolution of the PDF; but may be less accurate. In this paper we present the results of failure probability estimation using PDEM. The results will then be compared to extrapolated values obtained from extreme value distribution fits to the sample response values. The results approve the feasibility of this approach for reliability analysis of wind turbines however they convey the potential for improving accuracy of the method in low probability areas
ISBN:
9783037857960, 9783037955222
Type:
Conference paper
Language:
English
Published in:
Key Engineering Materials: 10th International Conference on Damage Assessment of Structures (damas 2013), July 8-10, 2013, Dublin, Ireland, 2013, p. 579-586
Keywords:
Wind Turbine; Failure Analysis; Monte Carlo; PDEM
Main Research Area:
Science/technology
Publication Status:
Published
Series:
Key Engineering Materials
Review type:
Peer Review
Conference:
10th International Conference on Damage Assessment of Structures, 2013
Publisher:
Trans Tech Publications Ltd.
Submission year:
2013
Scientific Level:
Scientific
ID:
244649792