Larsen, Sanne Vammen1; Kørnøv, Lone1; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur6
1 The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN2 Aalborg University Copenhagen, The Faculty of Humanities, Aalborg University, VBN3 Department of Development and Planning, The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN4 The Faculty of Engineering and Science (TECH), Aalborg University, VBN5 Sustainable Cities, The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN6 Urban Planning and Mobility, The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN
This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.
Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2013, Vol 43, p. 144-150
Climate change; Uncertainty; Decision-making; Strategic Environmental Assessment; Decision support systems