1 Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark2 Traffic modelling and planning, Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark3 unknown
Within the broad area of probabilistic modelling of individual discrete choice, we develop three strands of discussion. First, we outline a theoretical framework for the modelling of individual discrete choice under risk, distinguishing between three specific sources of randomness; in preference orderings, in outcomes, and in attribute tastes. Second, we apply this theoretical modelling framework to the domain of journey time risk (or ‘reliability’), a subject which has acquired prominence in the transportation policies of many countries. Third, we apply the modelling framework empirically, based upon a Stated Preference experiment of 2395 rail travellers choosing between alternative journeys embodying different levels of journey time risk. Across the sample of travellers, we estimate a mean value of scheduled journey time of 25.62pence/min, against a median of 18.55pence/min. We further estimate a mean ‘reliability ratio’ (ratio of the value of standard deviation of journey time to the value of scheduled journey time) of 2.07, against a median of 0.85. The properties of the distribution of the reliability ratio suggest a predominant behaviour of aversion to journey time risk.
Journal of Choice Modelling, 2012, Vol 5, Issue 3, p. 157-175
Discrete choice models; Probabilistic choice models; Transportation; Journey time risk; Value of reliability