Fritsche, U.2; Pierdzioch, C.2; Rulke, J. C.2; Stadtmann, G.3
1 Department of Business and Economics, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, SDU2 unknown3 Department of Business and Economics, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, SDU
Applied Economics Letters
We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the directional accuracy of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast, forecasters have no market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change in the gold price. Combining forecasts of both metal prices to set up a multivariate market-timing test yields no evidence of joint predictability of the directions of change of the prices of gold and silver.
Applied Economics Letters, 2013, Vol 20, Issue 12, p. 1127-1129