1 Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark2 Traffic modelling and planning, Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark3 unknown
The paper presents an ex post socio-economic assessment of the Oresund Bridge conducted ten years after the opening in July 2000. The study applies historical micro data to re construct the travel pattern with no bridge in place and compare this to the current situation. To complete the socio-economic assessment, the consumer benefits including all freight and passenger modes, are compared with the cost profile of the bridge. The monetary contributions are extrapolated to a complete 50 year period. It is revealed that the bridge from 2000–2010 generated a consumer surplus of €2 billion in 2000 prices discounted at 3.5% p.a., which should be compared with a total construction cost of approximately €4 billion. Seen over the 50 year period and by assuming a medium growth scenario the bridge is expected to generate an internal rate of return in the magnitude of 9% corresponding to a benefit-cost rate of 2.2.A main advantage of analysing infrastructure ex post is the ability to learn and understand behavioural and methodological elements not foreseen at the ex ante stages. Following this we offer an extended discussion including two parts. Firstly we compare the ex ante predictions for the bridge to the current transport flows. The importance of having the right assumptions and the ability to model the phasing-in process are underlined. Secondly, we offer a wider discussion on why some projects are more beneficial than others. This is done by comparing the Oresund Bridge, the Channel Tunnel, and the Great Belt Link.
Transport Policy, 2013, Vol 27, p. 53-65
Ex post analysis; Socio-economic assessment; Consumer benefits; Infrastructure; Ex ante predictions