Grau-Roma, L.7; Stockmarr, Anders1; Kristensen, C. S.7; Enøe, Claes3; López-Soria, S.7; Nofrarías, M.7; Bille-Hansen, Vivi3; Hjulsager, Charlotte Kristiane3; Sibila, M.7; Jorsal, Sven Erik Lind3; Fraile, L.7; Baekbo, P.7; Vigre, H.7; Segalés, J.7; Larsen, Lars Erik3
1 Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark2 Statistics and Data Analysis, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark3 National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark4 Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark5 Section for Public sector service and commercial diagnostics, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark6 Section for Virology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark7 unknown
Postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) is a worldwide spread condition that affects pigs in nursery and/or fattening units, and is considered to have a severe economic impact on swine production. The main clinical sign of PMWS is wasting, but can also include pallor of the skin, icterus, respiratory distress and diarrhoea. The main essential infectious agent for PMWS development is porcinecircovirus type 2 (PCV2), but the exact cause of PMWS is still unclear.PCV2 is present in most pig herds, but the occurrence of PMWS is more sporadic, and it is been difficult to reproduce PMWS by inoculating PCV2 alone. However, studies where co-infections have been applied have been more successful. Based on this, we modeled PMWS development based on longitudinal data on antibodies and PMWS status from herds in Denmark and Spain, where presence of a range of pathogens were considered as explanatory variables in the form of maternal immunity and the occurrence of seroconversion against the considered pathogens. However, maternal immunity could not be measured from mother animals due to cross fostering, no time points for seroconversion was available, and no case/control status could be assigned as PMWS do not have an ‘infectious period’ after which animals may be assigned control status. The talk will concentrate on the framework in which this was handled, which may be translated to similar settings for similar studies. We found that seroconversion towards PCV2 and Lawsonia intracellularis had a significant impact on PMWS in the Danish data, but it appears that the effect is positive, in the sense that seroconverted animals were less likely to develop PMWS. A number of maternal immunities also significantly affected PMWS development. Furthermore it was uncovered that most of these effects would not have been detected if pathogens were considered by themselves and not simultaneously.