1 Department of Development and Planning, The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN2 Traffic Research Group (Planning), The Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University, VBN3 The Faculty of Engineering and Science (TECH), Aalborg University, VBN4 Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalléen 21, NO-0349 Oslo5 Department of Mathematics, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, PL-50-357 Wroclaw
A long-term investigation
This paper reports the findings of two studies made eleven years apart in Norway (0035 and 0025) to evaluate effects on accidents of changes in the use of studded tyres in major cities in Norway. The first study covered the period from 1991 to 2000, the second study covered the period from 2002 to 2009. In both these periods, large changes in the percentage of cars using studded tyres were found in the cities that were included in the study. There was, in most cities, a tendency for the use of studded tyres to go down. Effects of these changes on injury accidents were evaluated by means of negative binomial regression models, using city and day as the unit of analysis, and including more than twenty explanatory variables in order to control for confounding factors. The effects of changes in the percentage of cars using studded tyres were well described by an accident modification function (dose–response curve), relating the size of changes in the number of accident to the size of the change in the use of studded tyres. Accidents during the season when the use of studded tyres is permitted were found to increase by about 5 percent if the use of studded tyres was reduced by 25 percentage points (e.g. from 50 to 25 percent) and to decline by about 2 percent when the use of studded tyres increased by 20 percentage points.
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2013, Vol 54, p. 15-25