1 Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark2 DTU Data Analysis, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark3 National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark4 Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark5 Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark6 University of Copenhagen
Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin) is a costly infection for dairy cows, potentially lethal to humans. Surveillance is based on bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody measurements, taken each quarter of the year. Herds are classified as Status 1- likely free of S. Dublin, or Status 2 – likely infected with S. Dublin, based on present /recent characteristics, but not actual S. Dublin detection. We develop a predictive model based on characteristics from last quarter, using on registry data for 2001-2007 for 9387 herds in Denmark . Only 2004-2007 data modeled due to data contamination.
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24th Nordic Conference in Mathematical Statistics, 2012