Puhan, Milo A3; Hansel, Nadia N3; Sobradillo, Patricia3; Enright, Paul3; Lange, Peter4; Hickson, Demarc3; Menezes, Ana M3; ter Riet, Gerben3; Held, Ulrike3; Domingo-Salvany, Antonia3; Mosenifar, Zab3; Antó, Josep M3; Moons, Karel G M3; Kessels, Alphons3; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith3
1 Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Københavns Universitet2 Section of Social Medicine, Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Københavns Universitet3 unknown4 Section of Social Medicine, Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Københavns Universitet
an individual subject data analysis of 10 cohorts
BACKGROUND: Little evidence on the validity of simple and widely applicable tools to predict mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exists. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a large international study to validate the ADO index that uses age, dyspnoea and FEV(1) to predict 3-year mortality and to update it in order to make prediction of mortality in COPD patients as generalisable as possible. DESIGN: Individual subject data analysis of 10 European and American cohorts (n=13 914). SETTING: Population-based, primary, secondary and tertiary care. PATIENTS: COPD GOLD stages I-IV. MEASUREMENTS: We validated the original ADO index. We then obtained an updated ADO index in half of our cohorts to improve its predictive accuracy, which in turn was validated comprehensively in the remaining cohorts using discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis and a number of sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: 1350 (9.7%) of all subjects with COPD (60% male, mean age 61 years, mean FEV(1) 66% predicted) had died at 3 years. The original ADO index showed high discrimination but poor calibration (p<0.001 for difference between predicted and observed risk). The updated ADO index (scores from 0 to 14) preserved excellent discrimination (area under curve 0.81, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.82) but showed much improved calibration with predicted 3-year risks from 0.7% (95% CI 0.6% to 0.9%, score of 0) to 64.5% (61.2% to 67.7%, score of 14). The ADO index showed higher net benefit in subjects at low-to-moderate risk of 3-year mortality than FEV(1) alone. INTERPRETATION: The updated 15-point ADO index accurately predicts 3-year mortality across the COPD severity spectrum and can be used to inform patients about their prognosis, clinical trial study design or benefit harm assessment of medical interventions.