Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen1; Christensen, O. B.3; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten1; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen1
1 Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark2 Urban Water Engineering, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark3 Danish Meteorological Institute
Spatio-temporal rainfall is modelled for the North-Eastern part of Zealand (Denmark) using the Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model as implemented in the RainSim software. Hourly precipitation series for fitting the model are obtained from a dense network of tipping bucket rain gauges in the model area. The spatio-temporal performance of the model with respect to precipitation extremes is evaluated in the points of a 2x2 km regular grid covering the full model area. The model satisfactorily reproduces the extreme behaviour of the observed precipitation with respect to event intensity levels and unconditional spatial correlation when evaluated using an event based ranking approach at point scale and an advanced spatio-temporal coupling of extreme events. Prospectively the model can be used as a tool to evaluate the impact of climate change without relying onprecipitation output from climate model modelled precipitation directly, but merely on the climate change signal derived from climate models.