We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Journal of Banking and Finance, 2013, Vol 37, Issue 1, p. 150-158
Metal prices Forecasting Forecaster (anti-)herding EFFICIENCY EXCHANGE MARKETS COINTEGRATION