1 The Department of Science, Systems and Models, Roskilde University2 IMFUFA, Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University
The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year is long enough to allow for the epidemic to reach its final size, I derive an age-structured model reflecting the school sytructure and discuss its properties. If disease transmission is independent of age there exists a stable equilibrium in the sense that the epidemics of the same size will arise in each season. If transmission is gae-dependent the dynamics can involve regular or irregular oscillations.
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European conference on mathematical and theoretical biology, 2005