Forecasting new products sales has been approached in many different ways over the last few decades. A model is presented which integrates several of these approaches and expands on them. The model is based on separate forecasting of trial volume and repeat volume and incorporates a special awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan.
Marketing and Research Today, 1993, Vol 21, Issue 4, p. 247-267