1 Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University2 Centre for Research in Integration, Education, Qualifications and Marginalization (CIM), Aarhus School of Business, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University3 Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University4 Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University
The main purpose of the paper is to give predictions of the migration potential from the 7 new EU member countries to the EEA/EU-13 countries. Being able to analyze 'real' migration behavior from these particular countries over the period 1990-2000 helps me to avoid problems related to (double) out-of sample forecasts and to the assumption of invariance of migration behavior across a space that previous studies had to hold. Results of the econometric analyses reveal the importance of controlling for pairs of countries unobserved heterogeneity. Preliminary results regarding the predictions of future gross and net migration flows show that the magnitude of the estimated gross and net migration flows is relatively high and lower, respectively, compared to forecasts from previous studies. Such a development in gross and net migration flows indicates that migration from the new EU member countries towards the 'old' EEA/EU countries is rather a temporary phenomenon in the sense that besides the inflows there will be substantial return flows as well.
Ikke Angivet, 2007
International migration; Panel data; EU enlargement