1 Department of Business Studies, Aarhus School of Business, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University2 Finance Research Group, Aarhus School of Business, Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University
This paper contains an empirical analysis of the dependence of the long forward-rate slope on the long-rate variance. The long forward-rate slope and the long rate are described by a bivariate GARCH-in-mean model. In accordance with theory, a negative long-rate variance-in-mean effect for the long forward-rate slope is documented. Thus, the greater the long-rate variance, the steeper the long forward-rate curve slopes downward (the long forward-rate slope is negative). The variance-in-mean effect is both statistically and economically significant.
Applied Financial Economics, 2005, Vol 15, Issue 11, p. 753-755