1 Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aarhus University, Aarhus University2 Master of Public Health (MPH), Faculty of Health Sciences, Aarhus University, Aarhus University3 Syddansk Universitet
Prediction based on the genetic-epidemiological facts in the 90's
Prediction of Type 1 diabetes at individual level is relevant for any possible intervention before clinical disease develops. Currently available markers of Type 1 diabetes include genetic specificities and immune markers, in addition to a positive family history. This chapter reviews the measures and methods of importance in predicting Type 1 diabetes. Based on numerical examples it is demonstrated that available markers have a low level of performance, even when combined. Even so, combined marker information may allow for the identification of the large majority of the general population who is at very low disease risk. The impact at population level of predicting Type 1 diabetes varies between societies because the performance of markers depends on levels of disease risk and distribution of markers within a population. The incorporation of the influence of non-genetic etiological factors may improve methods of predicting Type 1 diabetes within a given population.
Epidemiology of Diabetes Mellitus - an International Perspective, 2001, p. 103-112
type 1 diabetes; prediction; prevention; genetics; immunology; epidemiology