Kaplan, Sigal3; Vavatsoulas,, Konstantinos4; Prato, Carlo Giacomo1
1 Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark2 Traffic modelling and planning, Department of Transport, Technical University of Denmark3 Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark4 Grontmij Ltd.
Denmark is one of the leading cycling nations, where cycling trips constitute a large share of the total trips, and cycling safety assumes a top priority position in the agenda of policy makers. The current study sheds light on the aggravating and mitigating factors associated with cyclist injury severity on Danish roads by examining a comprehensive set of accidents involving a cyclist and a collision partner between 2007 and 2011. Method: This study estimates a generalized ordered logit model of the severity of cyclist injuries because of its ability to accommodate the ordered-response nature of severity while relaxing the proportional odds assumption. Results: Model estimates show that cyclist fragility (children under 10 years old and elderly cyclists over 60 years of age) and cyclist intoxication are aggravating individual factors,while helmet use is a mitigating factor. Speed limits above 70–80 km/h, slippery road surface, and location of the crash on road sections are aggravating infrastructure factors, while the availability of cycling paths and dense urban development are mitigating factors. Heavy vehicle involvement and conflicts between cyclists going straight or turning left and other vehicles going straight are aggravating vehicle involvement factors. Practical applications: The results are discussed in the context of applied policies, engineering, and traffic management solutions for bicycle safety in Denmark.
Journal of Safety Research, 2014, Vol 50, p. 75-82