1 Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark2 Wind Energy Systems, Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark3 Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark4 Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark5 Meteorology, Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark6 Mathematical Statistics, Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modeling, Technical University of Denmark7 unknown8 Department of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark9 Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark
The Ensemble project investigated the use of meteorological ensemble fore-casts for the prognosis of uncertainty of the forecasts, and found a good method to make use of ensemble forecasts. This method was then tried based on ensembles from ECMWF in formof a demo application for both the Nysted offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did not improve the error scores or the result space enough to warrant the computational effort.