1 Department of Buildings and Energy, Technical University of Denmark2 Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark3 Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
This report describes methodologies for analysing heat saving potentials. The background for the lack of activities in that field is suggested. Various elements of heat savings are described, including changes in daily behaviour and life styles. Definition of various levels of potentials are suggested. Two scenarios for future heat savings are established, deviating in the rates of renovation, demolition, and construction of buildings, as well as in the thermal insulation standards, ventilation systems ,and in the daily behaviour. The results are that compared to the base year 1995, heat consumption in 2030 would in these two scenarios, be lowered by 13% and 40% respectively. Even in the latter case only around half of the buildings have been improved by 2030, so demand is still declining.